This is about a family discussion during a crisis. During our usual quarantined family dinner in March 2020, my daughter Elise posed a question that lingered in my mind: “ Dad. How did the 9/11 crisis compare to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic? Elise was five years old on 9/11. This inquiry coincided with my final touches on an article I had been writing. It was a moment of introspection, contemplating the stark differences and similarities between two significant periods of upheaval. Black Swan events.

Pre COVID, in late December 2019, I read an article about Paul Volcker written by Froma Harrop that caught my attention after Volcker’s passing. The article and Volcker’s influence resonated with me deeply, bringing to mind my years studying business at the University of Buffalo while he was at the helm. As a Baby Boomer—one of the so-called “Yuppies” of the time—I’ve witnessed firsthand how Volcker’s policies shaped not only my generation but the economic foundation of the world we navigate today.

Froma’s article invited a closer look at the economic landscapes across five presidencies, drawing out lessons from Volcker’s era. Amid editing my thoughts, COVID-19 disrupted the world, turning these reflections from historical analysis into contemporary critique. This pandemic era highlights stark contrasts and similarities to the crises that Volcker helped steer us through, underscoring the resilience required from both leaders and institutions in uncertain times.

Volcker’s legacy, as Harrop aptly noted, isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about enduring values and the hard choices that shaped our economic environment. Reflecting on his impact in these challenging times reminds us of the critical role that steadfast, principled leadership plays in the face of adversity. Volcker’s focus on the “tough medicine” that shaped not just policies but the values that influenced a generation, including my own formative years in business school. Froma’s Volcker Dec 2019

In conversations with friends, spanning from Volcker’s rise in 1979 to the present day, we’ve exchanged perspectives on the unfolding narrative of our lives within the context of historical events.  Volcker’s policies directly impacted me as a young professional navigating high interest rates and inflation. Cindy and I were eating a lot of mac and cheese and goulash those days. The discussion naturally gravitates towards analyzing the actions of presidents, the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the Senate, particularly in times of crisis. With the emergence of various relief programs like the Payroll Protection Plan (PPP) and Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL), we navigate the complexities of economic stabilization efforts, drawing insights from our collective experiences and historical precedent

The world as we know it has drastically changed in the past few years. The COVID-19 pandemic, a rare and unexpected black swan event, has brought about unprecedented challenges and has left an indelible mark on society. While trends can provide useful insights and information about the future, the pandemic has shown us the importance of recognizing the potential for black swan events and being prepared for the unexpected.

In this article, I reflect on the past and learn from it, including the legacy of Paul Volcker, a towering figure in economics and finance. We will also pay tribute to the brave men and women who have risked their lives to keep us safe during these uncertain times. As we continue to grapple with the effects of the pandemic, it’s essential to remember those who have been affected and to acknowledge the sacrifices of those on the front lines. So join me as we delve into the past and present, and strive to find hope for the future amidst the chaos of this black swan event.

I’ll spare any political observations. It’s not my place nor necessary to comment on how leaders are handling things. This post includes my observations, thoughts and research on past and current statistics such as unemployment, the stock market, the GDP, and inflation. Now we watch the new stat, the death and hospitalization curves and the “when we’ll return to normalcy.” ZOOM meetings, masks and gloves, and social distancing have been the new norm.

2020-2022 COVID-19, Economic Turmoil, New Stimulus Programs and Saudi-Russia Oil Fight

Global widespread virus, layoffs and shutdowns have been the new norm.  Donald Trump was our president, Jerome Powell remains Fed Chair and our Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are all-navigating a plethora of government programs, both at the federal and state level. Stock gains in Trump’s reign have been totally wiped out just like the decrease in NASDAQ in 2002. While the immediate effects of our current health and economic situations are impacting our daily lives, we see an even larger impact happening from the enormous stimulus and bailout packages that are going through Federal and State legislatures. The CARES Act, EIDL, and the Main Street lending programs are now enacted and many business owners have received  funding, while others sit and wait on phase two of additional government approved funds.

I expect that certain industries anticipate new solutions that will become even more compelling as people may need to change work and daily life patterns. With the need for governments to spend on COVID-19, the tax dollars for newer disruptive projects are going to be questioned even more so.

For 2019, unemployment was 3.5%, the GDP was 2.3% and inflation was 2.3%. The unemployment rate continues to skyrocket and set daily records and the rate is expected to reach or even exceed 10%.

Before the pandemic hit, as of February 2020, The BLS household surveyhttps://www.bls.gov/cps/ showed that the US unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points in February 2020 to 3.5%. The unemployment rate peaked in October 2009 at 10.0% and is now 6.5 percentage points lower. From a post peak low of 3.5% in September 2019, the unemployment rate has now risen by exponential historical highs. And here is an interesting statistic. As of April 15, 2020 https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

1970’s to 1987: Volcker’s Tenure and the Fight Against Inflation Including The Vietnam War and the Buffalo Blizzard of 77

I was quite young during the Vietnam era, and while I was aware of the conflict, I didn’t experience it directly. The only reason I mention the blizzard of ’77 is that everything was shut down for a week, including a driving ban, which was a significant disruption.

During Paul Volcker’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman (1979-1987), a period that spanned the presidencies of Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, I graduated from the University of Buffalo in 1981. The economic climate was incredibly challenging. Mortgage interest rates were soaring to 16-18%, which made buying a home seem nearly impossible. Cindy and I seriously considered moving to Texas, where the economy was booming, but ultimately decided to stay in Buffalo. Those years were a financial tightrope walk for us. We bought our first house in 1983 for $33,000, a significant stretch given the 13.5% interest rate and 7.5% unemployment rate. To make ends meet, Cindy took on an evening and weekend job while we started our family, welcoming our first child in 1982. That period instilled in us the importance of financial prudence, the value of homeownership as an investment, and the ability to adapt to difficult economic times.

The Reagan Years, Deregulation and Economic Cycles. 

The 1990s were marked by a significant economic downturn, primarily driven by the collapse of the commercial real estate market. Under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, with Alan Greenspan serving as Federal Reserve Chair, the economy faced some of its most challenging periods. The real estate crisis was exacerbated by the rise of Savings & Loan (S&L) associations, many of which were run by inexperienced lenders. These poor practices led to widespread defaults, and institutions like Empire of America and Goldome, once pillars in the market, eventually went bankrupt. Unemployment soared, layoffs became widespread, and the nation faced economic uncertainty.

In response, the Financial Institutions Recovery, Reform, and Enhancement Act (FIRREA) of 1989 was passed. This pivotal legislation aimed to stabilize the economy by addressing the fallout from the S&L crisis. One of its key provisions was the creation of the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC), which managed and sold off bad commercial mortgages from failed institutions. This marked the beginning of a gradual economic recovery.

Amid these challenges, in January of 1990, I was promoted to my first management role. It was a defining moment in my career. During this time, our staffing division saw substantial growth as we tapped into a large pool of workers who had been laid off due to the collapse of S&L-backed institutions. The demand for temporary staffing increased as companies scrambled to maintain lean operations during these tough economic times. It was a period of uncertainty, but also one of tremendous opportunity.

By 1991, the unemployment rate had climbed to 7.4%, while GDP was barely positive at -0.01%. Inflation for December of that year stood at 3.1%. The economic challenges were paired with national tensions, as the Gulf War unfolded. In sports, the Buffalo Bills made a thrilling run to the Super Bowl, only to face heartbreak with Scott Norwood’s infamous “wide right” miss. Yet, despite the tension, the nation found a moment of unity—especially with Whitney Houston’s iconic performance of the national anthem at the Super Bowl. You can still watch the unforgettable performance here: Whitney Houston Super Bowl 1991.

Despite these challenges, the groundwork for economic recovery was laid, and the economy began to rebound. By the mid-90s, the economy was in full recovery, and with it, my career took off. This period marked a boom for the staffing industry, which flourished alongside the broader economic revival. The rise of technology in the latter part of the decade further transformed the landscape. Sir Timothy Berners-Lee and his team of scientists introduced the World Wide Web to the globe, setting the stage for an unprecedented era of communication and business. This was a period of remarkable progress, both professionally and personally, as I navigated the changing business environment while capitalizing on the newfound possibilities of the digital age.

9/11 ~ Tuesday, September 11, 2001

It was a day that would forever change the course of history. George W. Bush was president, and Alan Greenspan was still the Federal Reserve Chair. The morning started out like any other, but as the news began to unfold, a sense of disbelief set in. I remember watching the television when the first plane struck the World Trade Center. At that moment, no one fully understood the magnitude of what had just happened. The world was still trying to make sense of it when, just minutes later, the second plane hit. It was then that it became painfully clear: we were under attack. The reality of war had arrived, and nothing would be the same again.

I was dropping Elise off at nursery school when the news broke about the second plane. The streets felt different, the air was thick with tension. By the time I returned home, the scale of the tragedy was becoming evident. Cindy and I sat together in front of the TV, watching the events unfold—terrorism on U.S. soil, planes crashing into iconic landmarks, and, later in the day, the plane hitting the Pentagon. That moment will forever remain etched in our minds, a shared experience of shock and grief that we, as a nation, endured together.

At the time, the economic numbers painted a picture of a stable economy—mortgage rates were at 6.82%, unemployment at 4.9%, GDP was holding steady at 1.0%, and inflation was relatively low at 1.6%. But those numbers became a distant concern in the wake of the tragedy. It was a moment when everything else—the markets, the economy, the day-to-day routines—seemed insignificant in comparison to the human cost of the attacks.

After the initial shock and sorrow, the nation began to rally. In a symbolic gesture, President George W. Bush threw out the first pitch at Yankee Stadium on October 30, 2001. The crowd’s roar was an unmistakable expression of defiance, of a country refusing to be cowed. You can still watch the emotional moment here: George W. Bush Throws First Pitch, October 30, 2001.

In the aftermath of that day, we went to war, and yet, we also returned to work. The economy, despite the devastation, had to keep moving. People still had to work, still had to provide for their families, and the workforce had to adapt to an uncertain new reality. It was a time that showed the resilience of the American spirit. We were shaken to our core, but we carried on, and life, in a sense, returned to normal. But it was a new normal—one that had been irrevocably altered by the events of September 11th.

The 2001 dot-com bubble, or the dot-com boom ~ George W Bush was president Alan Greenspan was the Fed Chair. I was engaged in our staffing companies during this period where excessive speculation in Internet related companies sparked a period of massive growth. From 1995 to 2000, the NASDAQ rose 400% only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002 washing out all its gain by 2002. Mortgage rates were 6.0%, the GDP was 1.7%, unemployment was 5.7%, and inflation was 2.4%.https://www.multpl.com/unemployment/table/by-month

The Great Recession and Echoes of Volcker’s Values
2007-2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis

The financial turmoil of the Great Recession began in earnest with the subprime mortgage crisis, which deeply impacted the global economy between 2007 and 2010. At the time, the United States was under the leadership of three different presidents: George W. Bush (2001-2009), Barack Obama (2009-2017), and Donald Trump (2017-present). Similarly, three Federal Reserve Chairs—Ben Bernanke (2006-2014), Janet Yellen (2014-2018), and Jerome Powell (2018-present)—oversaw a tumultuous period marked by the collapse of the housing market and the ensuing financial instability.

Mortgage rates peaked at 5.4%, as many homebuyers had taken out loans they could not afford, relying on adjustable-rate mortgages and risky financial products. At the same time, unemployment rates skyrocketed to 10%, and GDP shrank by -0.01%. Inflation remained nearly stagnant at just 0.1%, but the larger economy was in shambles. Many eager job seekers simply gave up searching, their dreams of upward mobility dashed as hiring freezes took hold in companies across the nation.

In the housing market, home prices plummeted following the collapse of the housing bubble. The result was a domino effect: mortgage delinquencies soared, foreclosures hit record levels, and housing prices lost much of their value. The fallout from this triggered a chain reaction, leading to widespread job losses, a drop in household spending, and severe economic uncertainty. For many, it felt as though the American Dream was slipping through their fingers.

As for my business, the subprime mortgage crisis took its toll, but we weathered the storm. While permanent placements were in short supply, our temporary staffing division proved to be more resilient. In these trying times, businesses were more likely to rely on temporary labor to stay flexible while navigating the uncertain economic landscape. Still, it was a rough period. Every placement, every contract felt like a small victory amidst the chaos of the larger economy.

In the spring of 2009, amidst the financial turbulence, my colleague Tom Thomson and I embarked on a two-week trip to Hong Kong and China. Our goal was to explore the possibility of establishing an offshore IT programming entity, an idea born out of the need to adapt and innovate in the face of economic adversity. The trip was eye-opening, and though the world was reeling from the mortgage crisis, we sought new opportunities and alternative solutions for business growth.

In retrospect, the subprime crisis was a pivotal moment in the history of modern finance. It tested the very foundations of the American economy, exposing vulnerabilities that many had long ignored. But through it all, I was reminded of the values Paul Volcker instilled during his tenure as Fed Chair—values of discipline, responsibility, and accountability. Volcker’s legacy of focusing on long-term stability over short-term gain provided a stark contrast to the risky behavior that had led to the housing bubble.

We all somehow survived the subprime dilemma, though not without scars. But as the dust settled, it became clear that the lessons learned from this crisis—about risk, responsibility, and resilience—would shape the course of my business, and the broader economy, for years to come.

The Great Depression and Hard-Earned Lessons (1929 – 1939)

In September of 1929, the stock market crash that marked the beginning of the Great Depression rippled through the world. For my dad, this era of financial devastation arrived just as he turned one year old, while my mom came two years later. The Depression persisted through the late 1930s, offering my mother a unique perspective on hardship, informed by her parents’ struggles. Throughout this time, Herbert Hoover and Franklin D. Roosevelt served as the Presidents who guided the nation through its darkest days.

My grandparents, who were crop farmers, were hit particularly hard by the economic collapse, especially as crop prices plummeted by 60%. Yet, they remained remarkably resilient. Though rural communities were especially vulnerable, my grandparents were self-sufficient, raising egg-laying chickens, dairy cattle, hogs, and maintaining a highly efficient greenhouse. With only the barest of essentials—clothing, sugar, and gas for their equipment—they managed to survive. In their eyes, hardship became a part of life, but it was a life lived on their own terms, on the land.

I’ve always admired my mother’s reflections on those times. She once shared with me that, while many farmers in their area lost their farms, her family was fortunate to have held on. In a conversation, I asked her how everything was, to which she responded: “Not so bad, as everyone was in the same boat… no one had any money.” I couldn’t help but think that, in many ways, her words reflect the economic challenges we’ve faced in more recent times. She even pointed out, “The loss of lives is a tragedy here.” I’ll never forget that moment—her words carry the weight of history and have stayed with me.

During the Great Depression, the global economy shrank dramatically, with worldwide GDP falling by an estimated 15%. By comparison, the 2008–2009 recession, though severe, saw a much smaller contraction of around 1%. The negative effects of the Depression lingered well into the start of World War II. International trade plummeted by 50%, and unemployment peaked at a staggering 23%. The scale of the downturn was immense, leaving scars that would last for generations.

A Hundred + Years Ago (1918 – 1920) ~ The Spanish Flu and a World in Recovery

The 1918 flu pandemic, also known as the Spanish Flu, was one of the deadliest outbreaks in human history. Spanning from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected an estimated 500 million people—roughly a quarter of the global population at the time. The death toll remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from 17 million to as high as 100 million. Regardless of the exact number, the pandemic’s impact was devastating, and it left an indelible mark on the world.

At the same time, World War I came to a close on November 11, 1918, marking the end of one of the deadliest conflicts in history. The war had wreaked havoc on economies, societies, and families worldwide, but the flu pandemic that followed overshadowed it in terms of lives lost. President Woodrow Wilson, still reeling from the effects of the war, was now confronted with a global health crisis. Spain’s King Alfonso XIII famously contracted the flu, which ultimately led to the virus being named after the country, despite its origin likely being in the United States.

In the midst of this, President Wilson fell ill with the Spanish Flu in April 1919, just as he was deeply involved in post-war negotiations with French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau and British Prime Minister David Lloyd George. Unfortunately, Wilson’s negotiating abilities were severely impaired as he lay stricken and quarantined in a hotel room. Despite his recovery from the flu, Wilson was later debilitated by a stroke, which further diminished his political strength. As a result, many historians argue that the treaty signed on June 28, 1919, was influenced by Wilson’s weakened state—his desire for a more favorable peace agreement being overshadowed by the French and British demands.

The effects of the Spanish Flu, alongside the end of World War I, left a world grappling with loss, uncertainty, and a pressing need for recovery. The historical events of this time remind us of how pandemics and global crises can shape not only the lives of individuals but also the very direction of world history. The historical lessons from that era have relevance to our current times, particularly in terms of public health and economic recovery.

Punctuating the Past: Crises that Shaped Our World

As I reflect on the challenges that have shaped both my life and my business, it becomes increasingly clear that every generation faces its own crisis. From the economic upheavals of the 19th century to the global disruptions of the 20th and 21st centuries, history is full of lessons learned through hardship. Whether it’s financial turmoil, global conflict, or pandemics, each of these events serves as a reminder of the resilience required to survive—and ultimately, to thrive—through difficult times.

Economic and Financial Crises: A Long History of Instability

The Panic of 1837 in the United States marked a devastating economic depression, mirroring the kind of instability we would later see in the 20th and 21st centuries. It revealed the fragility of early American economic systems, serving as a precursor to the larger disruptions that would follow. Similarly, the Panic of 1893, driven by issues like railroad overexpansion and the gold standard, offers an early example of how economic bubbles and financial missteps can trigger widespread collapse.

Wars and Global Conflicts: The Impact of Global Tension

Beyond economic crises, global conflicts have played a critical role in shaping history. The Spanish Flu of 1918 wasn’t the only global disruption of the early 20th century—World War I (1914-1918) reshaped economies, political landscapes, and societies in ways that would be felt long after the war ended. Then came World War II, which dwarfed all previous wars in terms of scale, loss of life, and destruction.

While not a direct war, the Cold War (1947-1991) created a constant atmosphere of tension, underscoring the global balance of power and the ever-present threat of nuclear conflict. Additionally, regional conflicts like the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Gulf Wars exemplified how certain regions and generations faced intense, often unresolved crises, leaving lasting impacts on politics, society, and the global economy.

Social and Political Upheavals: The Struggle for Change

Social upheavals have also been instrumental in shaping history. The Civil Rights Movement of the 1950s and 1960s marked a pivotal turning point in the United States, fueled by the intense struggles for equality and justice. This period of unrest was part of a larger cultural revolution, where protests, counterculture movements, and changing social norms swept across many parts of the globe.

Wider revolutions, like the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution, remind us that radical transformations can occur during times of crisis, permanently altering the course of nations and societies.

Assassinations in the 1960s: A Nation in Mourning
The 1960s were marked by a series of national tragedies that further heightened the sense of societal unrest. On April 4, 1968, Martin Luther King Jr., one of the nation’s most prominent civil rights leaders, was assassinated, plunging the country into mourning and political uncertainty. Just two months later, on June 5, 1968, the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, a U.S. senator and presidential candidate, added to the collective grief and sense of lost potential. And earlier, on November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, Texas. I can still vividly recall sitting on my mother’s lap in Cleveland when the announcement of JFK’s assassination came over the airwaves, a moment that encapsulated the grief and confusion that swept across the nation.

These tragic events, on top of the Vietnam War, demonstrated how personal loss and political upheaval often intersected, creating a perfect storm of tension that would affect generations to come. They added a deep sense of unease to an already unstable decade, shifting the American psyche and political landscape forever.

Pandemics and Natural Disasters: A Recurring Challenge

Lastly, the history of pandemics reminds us that global health crises are far from a modern phenomenon. The Black Death of the 14th century, one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, had profound social, economic, and demographic consequences that fundamentally changed Europe. Other outbreaks, such as the Justinian Plague and cholera epidemics, show how pandemics have recurred throughout history—each one leaving a unique and lasting mark on the world.

Looking Ahead: 2025 and Beyond

Reflecting on the enduring legacy of Paul Volcker, we are reminded of his steadfast commitment to fiscal responsibility, stability, and accountability—principles that remain just as critical in today’s volatile economic landscape. As I look back on the shifting tides of the past few years, from the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to the subsequent economic recovery efforts, one truth remains constant: leadership rooted in resilience, discipline, and long-term vision is essential in times of crisis.

Since my initial reflections in 2020, much has changed. The world has navigated economic turbulence, faced new challenges, and yet, through it all, the lessons of the past continue to guide us. From the reappointment of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair to the surging inflation rates, ongoing labor shortages, and a rapidly shifting global landscape, the current period is defined by uncertainty but also potential growth.

Volcker’s approach—prioritizing stability, long-term goals, and the hard choices necessary to navigate crises—remains a vital framework for understanding our present moment. As we move through the evolving landscape, it’s important to consider how these values can be applied not only in the public and corporate sectors but in our own personal and professional lives.

In the years to come, we will undoubtedly face new challenges and opportunities. The events of the past, from the Great Depression and 9/11 to the subprime crisis and the pandemic, have all shaped us, but the future is still unwritten. Will we choose long-term stability over short-term gains? Will we build resilient, adaptable organizations that can weather future storms? How will we continue to navigate the next black swan event, with the lessons of history and the principles of Volcker’s leadership to guide us?

The values of responsibility, resilience, and leadership will remain crucial as we move forward. The question is not just how we apply them today, but how we carry them into the future—and how the next generations will continue to shape the world in response to the challenges that lie ahead.Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker in the oval office.